Brentford are undefeated for 11 straight games, the longest streak in the Premier League. This included an impressive win over Liverpool (3-1) and draws with Tottenham (2-2) and Arsenal (1-1).
The Bees play mostly as number two (43.7% possession), relying on explosive counterattacks. 30% of their pressing comes from the third defense, which is the highest in the league.
This style allows you to create an average of 1.4 xg with 1.26 allowed.
Fulham uses quite an interesting approach, it consists of crazy pressing in the middle third of the pitch (53% – 1st place). This allows for effective play in the opponent’s transition phases, creating an average of 1.37xg per game.
The main problem of “summer residents” is defense. In terms of the expected number of goals conceded (xga = 1.62) they are second to last in the league.
The situation is overshadowed by the fact that the main defensive midfielder Paligny, who is the best in tackles not only in the team, but also in the Premier League, will be absent from this match.
The absence of the Portuguese midfielder not only weakens Fulham in defence, it significantly damages the team’s style. In the current season, she played only 1 time without Paglinya, which turned into a crushing defeat against Newcastle (1: 4).
My guess is that Fulham’s staff shortages in the critical zone will lead to fundamental problems and an imbalance in the squad. I think the bees will easily score 3 points and open the opponent’s defense at least twice.