Total under 3

Manchester City are the absolute favorites to win the 2022-23 Champions League according to the Opta supercomputer (28.2%). The team goes into this matchup on an 8-game winning streak across all competitions, averaging 3.88 goals per game.

The Citizens are undefeated in the Champions League this season, with Pep Guardiola having the highest playoff win percentage (54%) of any coach with 30 or more games.

In the Premier League, Sky Blues lead in expected goals scored (xg = 2.13) and conceded (xga = 0.77).

Bayern have been alternating wins and losses lately, and they no longer look as invulnerable as they once were. After losing to Bayer (1:2), coach Julian Nagelman was fired. He was replaced by Thomas Tuchel, who made a brilliant debut with a 4-2 win over Borussia Dortmund. However, in the next match in the quarter-finals of the German Cup, he unexpectedly lost to Freiburg (1: 2).

It is worth adding that it was Thomas Tuchel who beat Guardiola in the 2021 Champions League final when his Chelsea beat Manchester City 1-0, and a month earlier the German tactician was stronger again in the FA Cup semi-final, winning 1-0 0.

I think in this match the price of a mistake will make both teams more cautious. I expect another stubborn confrontation with a minimum of moments.