Bayern win with handicap (-1)

Mainz is having a great season, especially the second half. After the winter break, Bo Svensson’s team suffered only 2 defeats in 13 rounds. Thanks to this, they climbed to the 8th place in the table and reduced the loss to the European Cup zone to 2 points. On average per game, Carnivals create 1.38 xg with the same expected number of goals conceded. It is worth noting that after a perfect match with Leipzig (3:0) they failed to beat Werder Bremen (2:2) and Cologne (1:1), which is worrying.

Bayern have clear problems in their game right now and can’t beat opponents with the confidence they used to have. However, even in poor form, they still dominate the Bundesliga. In terms of the expected number of goals scored (xg = 2.17) and conceded (xga = 1.08) goals, the Bavarians are second to none.

The only thing that can prevent Thomas Tuchel’s men from winning this match is a tight schedule. On April 19, Bayern played the return match with Manchester City (1: 1), which turned out to be the last match for the team in the current Champions League draw.

After being knocked out of the DFB-Pokal and the Champions League, Bayern could focus entirely on the Bundesliga. I suppose that after three games without victories, the great German ball will be able to show sporting anger and confidently defeat the outsider.