Spartak win + total over 1.5 – yes

With the defeat in the final round against Orenburg (0:2), Spartak broke a 10-match unbeaten streak and for the first time since August 20, 2022, did not score a goal.

After the resumption of the games, the team does not look good. She was unable to break the resistance of “Ural” (2:2) and almost missed the victory in the match with “Fel” (3:2).

It is worth noting that in matches where the “red and white” lost points, they lost to the opponent by no more than 0.4 xg.

In terms of the expected number of goals scored (xg = 2) and conceded (xga = 1.21), Spartak is ranked 2nd and 4th in the RPL.

“Achmat” over the distance of 20 rounds was able to climb to the 6th place in the table, but according to the metric of expected points scored (xpts = 26.2) he can only count on the 10th round.

The team is not distinguished by productivity in attack and monolithic defense. In terms of the expected number of scored (xg = 1.3) and conceded (xga = 1.33) goals, it ranks in the top six of the RPL.

After the resumption of RPL, Grozny scored 2 victories in three matches, losing only to Lokomotiv (0:1).

In the last round, Achmat miraculously did not miss the Wings (1:0).

I think the visitors will lose at least two goals against the more aggressive Spartak in attack.