Newcastle prefer to play in the opposition’s transitional phase, as evidenced by the third place in the Premier League in the number of direct attacks (54). The successful implementation of this style helps Magpies find the perfect balance in the game in terms of expected threats created (xT = 1.6) and allowed (xTA = 1.17), rounding out the top five of the championship.
The team presented good results before the break, in the last 5 rounds they lost only to stronger Manchester City (0:2) and Liverpool (0:2). However, repeating the success in this match will be problematic. Top scorer Almiron (11 + 1) will not help the club, and the participation of Pope, Saint-Maximin and Botman is in doubt.
Manchester United follows a similar concept, preferring to attack the opponent when they are most disorganized and vulnerable. The Red Devils meet their rival much lower, as evidenced by the 3rd from the bottom in terms of distance to the backline (41.52 m from the goal), which is comparable to Wolverhampton or Nottingham.
This approach produces an average of 1.57 xg with 1.25 xg allowed. In the last 5 games, the team lost 7 points thanks to draws with Leeds (2-2) and Southampton (0-0) and defeats to Liverpool (0-7).
In the upcoming match, the participation of Garnacho (2+2), Varane, Rashford (14+3), Martial (3+2) is in doubt. But the biggest loss for Manchester United is the possible absence of Sabitzer, Eriksen and the suspension of Casemiro.
Losing several key players at once will prevent Manchester United from scoring points in this match. I don’t think the Magpies will waste their chance.