Total over 2
Millwall
Millwall, after a run of 4 rounds without a win and a goal scored, was able to show a positive reaction and beat Preston (2-0) with a comfortable advantage. Gary Rowett’s team in the upcoming match will try to gain a foothold in the playoff zone using their main weapon – a solid defense. In terms of expected goals conceded (xga = 1) it ranks in the top four. At the same time, Lviv’s play as number two (45.2% possession of the ball) adversely affects their offensive potential (xg = 1.2). It is worth noting that Millwall won 60% of their points in home matches.
Birmingham
Birmingham almost guaranteed a place in the second best league in the country with 50 points. In the last match, John Eustace’s team lost to Sunderland (1: 2), which broke the streak of 4 rounds without defeat.
The Blues in their games prefer to wait for the opponent’s error and rarely push, relying on rare counterattacks. In terms of possession (92), with 10 and more passes, they rank second to last in the league, and in terms of the speed of the ball moving into the opponent’s goal, they are in the top five. On average per match, this style allows you to create 1.1 xg with 1.24 xg allowed.
Forecast
In the upcoming game, Millwall will be forced to behave in an unusual way more often, playing more aggressively in the last third of the pitch. If the opponents created 0.7xg for a two-piece in their first-round match, things should change now. I assume an increased number of errors and at least 2 goals scored.