Ajax win with handicap (-1.5)


“Ajax” in the national championships recorded an excellent form of the game. With the arrival of John Heitinga as head coach, the team had 5 consecutive victories with an aggregate score of 18-3. Thanks to this, the Ajaxids were able to get within two points of the leading Feyenoord. And the probability of their victory in the championship race increased to 27.2% (according to Opta).

In terms of expected goals scored (xg = 2.44) and conceded (xga = 0.85), the club ranks at the top of the Eredivisie.

On the eve of this meeting, Ajax warmed up with second division side Grafschap (3-0) in the quarter-finals of the Dutch Cup.

NEC Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen are one of the most tenacious teams this season, drawing 12 of their 23 matches and claiming 6 wins. In terms of the number of goals lost (22), it goes at a masterful pace (Feyenoord has the same number) and only Twente (18) is behind in this parameter. It should be remembered that this result was achieved thanks to banal luck. According to the expected goals conceded ratio (xga = 30.4), the club clearly did not deserve to be called a strong defence.

NEC Nijmegen are approaching the upcoming meeting with a mini series of victories over outsiders Volendam (3-0) and Excelsior (3-0).


I think the favorite will be more stubborn and extend his winning streak.