Porto will win or draw
Benfica
Benfica, under the leadership of Roger Schmidt, play the most dominant football in the league. With an average ball possession of 64.5%, the Eagles simply crush most of their opponents. In terms of the expected number of goals scored (xg = 2.57) and conceded (xga = 0.63), they are leading. And when it comes to their difference (xgDiff = +50.2), they are a head ahead of their closest oppressor, Porto (xgDiff = +31.7).
In the upcoming match, Benfica is the clear favorite, but the tight schedule may affect the result. In 4 days, the team will play in the quarter-finals of the Champions League against Inter, which will force them to save money.
Porto
Porto is also showing impressive results and deservedly takes second place in the table. In terms of expected goals scored (xg = 2.07) and conceded (xga = 0.85), it ranks in the top three.
The main weapon of the “dragons” is to play in the opponent’s transition phases. This is clearly evidenced by the 1st place in the league in terms of the number of direct attacks (49). After an unexpected loss to Gil Vicente (1-2), Sergio Conceição’s team won in three matches and shared the points with Braga (0-0).
The rivals met already in the 10th round of the Primeira League, but then Porto’s scoring prevented removal in the 27th minute.
Forecast
In these circumstances, Porto are able to take advantage of Benfica’s busy schedule, especially as the 10-point advantage will allow them to focus more on the Champions League.