Espanyol handicap (+1.5)
Real Madrid is one of the leaders of the Spanish championship. In terms of predicted goals scored (xg = 2.08) and conceded (xga = 0.87), the team ranks 1st and 3rd respectively in the league. After a series of unsuccessful matches, the “cream” lost 9 points to the leaders “Barcelona”, so they will be forced to concentrate more on European competitions.
Most likely, the club will not play at full strength in this match, because in 4 days they will have to play a match against Liverpool in the ⅛ final of the Champions League. In addition, there are staffing problems. The participation of top scorer Karim Benzema (11+3) is doubtful.
Espanyol prefer to play as second number, relying on quick counter-attacks. They are 3rd from bottom in possession of more than 10 passes (115), but second only to Cádiz and Almería in terms of how fast the ball travels upfield.
This tactic produces an average of 1.18 xg with 1.27 xg allowed. It is worth noting that the team is quite uncompromising and rarely fails. For 24 rounds, she lost only 3 times by a difference of 3 or more goals. In the first round match against Real Madrid (1:3) the Parrots lost to the opponent by only 0.8 xg.
Real Madrid will likely save resources. I assume Espanyol will be able to take advantage of this and not lose a lot of money.